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posted by martyb on Sunday December 12 2021, @04:52AM   Printer-friendly

[ED NOTE: Editors discussed whether we should even run this story. I decided to take a chance. BUT, it's up to the community how this goes. Feel free to downmod comments that attack the *commenter* rather than *add* something to the discussion.--martyb]

Growing extremism can and has turned almost anything into a political struggle in which people pay diminishing attention to the topics and more to the 'tribal' group that they may be associated with. We've seen the effects on the functioning on the US congress, as well as in how laws on various topics have been playing out lately.

But the idea that without a center, things fall apart, may be more real than we thought, as this article at ScienceBlog about a Cornell study describes: https://scienceblog.com/527200/tipping-point-makes-partisan-polarization-irreversible/

It seems that up to a point, it is possible to reverse the polarization. Beyond that tipping point, it cannot. From what I've seen, the US is probably in the vicinity of that tipping point. The pattern described here sounds an awful lot like the period-doubling path to chaos, a mathematical construct in which a function that has a single stable state in one range of numbers starts developing two stable states, and then four, until stability is lost and the set devolves into chaos. If this reflection has any validity in the political or social realms, then we should also have seen the same pattern play out within discussions that turn to chaos.

Is there predictive power in this observation by the researchers at Cornell? If so, can anything be done to head it off, or are we all doomed to watch it play out?

Journal Reference:
Michael W. Macy, Manqing Ma, Daniel R. Tabin, et al. Polarization and tipping points [$], Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2102144118)


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  • (Score: 1) by khallow on Sunday December 12 2021, @05:41PM (1 child)

    by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Sunday December 12 2021, @05:41PM (#1204315) Journal

    Mathematically, they won't. Eventually, almost all weather becomes mundane, because the extremes will already have been hit in the past. It's only if there's an underlying trend moving the average that extremes will continue to be made.

    Technically, given how crazy the world has been over its few billion year lifespan, would any sort of weather be extreme by your meaning above? Unprecedented weather is a subset of extreme weather which means merely weather well outside the present norm. The present norm would still exist even in the absence of climate change (which yes, I acknowledge is ongoing).

  • (Score: 3, Touché) by hendrikboom on Monday December 13 2021, @04:34AM

    by hendrikboom (1125) Subscriber Badge on Monday December 13 2021, @04:34AM (#1204519) Homepage Journal

    After al, remember the old days when rocks kept falling out of the sky -- enough to keep the ground molten?
    Neither do I. I'm only 75 years old.
    I don't remember that kind of climate.

    maybe ari?

    -- hendrik