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upstart writes:

As China quietly joins sanctions against Russia, Xi might be too rational to risk arming Putin:

The protracted war in Ukraine has plainly caught China off guard and led to some confusion and mixed reports about the extent to which President Xi Jinping's regime supports Moscow's offensive. China continues to withhold explicit criticism of the Russian invasion and may still be working to formulate a coherent response. But beyond the rhetoric out of Beijing, the evidence suggests China is not acting to undermine the economic and financial sanctions on Russia and indeed has moved to support the drive to isolate Russia economically.

We believe this is the result of a cost-benefit calculation by Xi, who appears to be far more rational than Russia's President, Vladimir Putin.

Consider the following. From the outset of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, two major Chinese state-controlled banks have reportedly refused to provide US dollar-denominated letters of credit to finance imports from Russia. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, in which China is the largest shareholder, announced a suspension of any new lending to Russia. The New Development Bank (the so-called BRICS Bank), which is headquartered in Shanghai, made a similar announcement.

[...] Of course, tracking the full extent of this economic disengagement can be difficult, since Chinese firms are usually reluctant to make public statements. A Russian official responsible for maintaining airplane safety disclosed that China has refused to provide spare parts to Russia's commercial airline fleet (Boeing and Airbus had already announced a suspension of parts sales to Russia); the official has since been fired for his public statements about China. These parts almost certainly would have come from local inventories of China's major state-owned airlines.

Moreover, some noncompliant Chinese actions might be successfully concealed. But the actions noted above indicate that at least some Chinese companies and leaders are risk-averse and that China may be unlikely to provide military assistance to Russia, as some news accounts indicate, if only because the United States is likely to respond with a round of tough sanctions on China itself.

To be sure, China's global geopolitical objectives may in part align with Russia's. Moscow and Beijing share the view that the US is weakened economically and that its behaviour poses a security threat.

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