This report [rand.org] examines the feasibility for non-state actors, including terrorist and insurgent groups, to increase their political and/or economic power by deploying a virtual currency (VC) for use in regular economic transactions. A VC, such as Bitcoin, is a digital representation of value that can be transferred, stored, or traded electronically and that is neither issued by a central bank or public authority, nor necessarily attached to a fiat currency (dollars, euros, etc.), but is accepted by people as a means of payment. We addressed the following research questions from both the technological and political-economic perspectives: (1) Why would a non-state actor deploy a VC? That is, what political and/or economic utility is there to gain? How might this non-state actor go about such a deployment? What challenges would it have to overcome? (2) How might a government or organization successfully technologically disrupt a VC deployment by a non-state actor, and what degree of cyber sophistication would be required? (3) What additional capabilities become possible when the technologies underlying the development and implementation of VCs are used for purposes broader than currency? This report should be of interest to policymakers interested in technology, counterterrorism, and intelligence and law enforcement issues, as well as for VC and cybersecurity researchers.
Key Findings:
Non-State Actors Can Use VCs to Disrupt Sovereignty and Increase Political and/or Economic Power, but Unlikely to Use Established VC; Many Challenges Posed by Creation of VCs
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VCs Are Vulnerable to Attacks, Especially by a Technologically Sophisticated Adversary
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Development and Implementation of VCs Could Add to Security-Related Technological Developments That Could Aid Non-State Actors
Only terrorists use Bitcoin?