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takyon [soylentnews.org] writes:

The BBC is reporting on a new paper and equation written by physicist Dr. David Grimes. The Poisson distribution-based equation estimates how long a conspiracy can stay clandestine [bbc.com] based on the number of conspirators. Three real world examples were used: the NSA's PRISM program, the Tuskegee syphilis experiment, and Dr. Frederic Whitehurst's revelation of flawed FBI forensic science.

He then applied his equation to four famous conspiracy theories: The belief that the Moon landing was faked, the belief that climate change is a fraud, the belief that vaccines cause autism, and the belief that pharmaceutical companies have suppressed a cure for cancer.

Dr Grimes's analysis suggests that if these four conspiracies were real, most are very likely to have been revealed as such by now. Specifically, the Moon landing "hoax" would have been revealed in 3.7 years, the climate change "fraud" in 3.7 to 26.8 years, the vaccine-autism "conspiracy" in 3.2 to 34.8 years, and the cancer "conspiracy" in 3.2 years.

"The mathematical methods used in this paper were broadly similar to the mathematics I have used before in my academic research on radiation physics," Dr Grimes said.

[...] The Moon landing hoax, for instance, began in 1965 and would have involved about 411,000 Nasa employees. With these parameters, Dr Grimes's equation suggests that the hoax would have been revealed after 3.7 years. Additionally, since the Moon landing hoax is now more than 50 years old, Dr Grimes's equation predicts that, at most, only 251 conspirators could have been involved. Thus, it is more reasonable to believe that the Moon landing was real.

Of course, it doesn't matter if the public knows about a conspiracy if they don't believe it happened... or care.

On the Viability of Conspiratorial Beliefs [plos.org] (open, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0147905)

Original Submission