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Computer-based weather forecast: New algorithm outperforms mainframe computer systems [innovations-report.com]:

Gerber and Horenko, along with their co-authors, have summarized their concept in an article entitled "Low-cost scalable discretization, prediction, and feature selection for complex systems" recently published in Science Advances.

"This method enables us to carry out tasks on a standard PC that previously would have required a supercomputer," emphasized Horenko. In addition to weather forecasts, the research see numerous possible applications such as in solving classification problems in bioinformatics, image analysis, and medical diagnostics.

Breaking down complex systems into individual components

The paper presented is the result of many years of work on the development of this new approach. According to Gerber and Horenko, the process is based on the Lego principle, according to which complex systems are broken down into discrete states or patterns. With only a few patterns or components, i.e., three or four dozen, large volumes of data can be analyzed and their future behavior can be predicted.

"For example, using the SPA algorithm we could make a data-based forecast of surface temperatures in Europe for the day ahead and have a prediction error of only 0.75 degrees Celsius," said Gerber. It all works on an ordinary PC and has an error rate that is 40 percent better than the computer systems usually used by weather services, whilst also being much cheaper.

SPA or Scalable Probabilistic Approximation is a mathematically-based concept. The method could be useful in various situations that require large volumes of data to be processed automatically, such as in biology, for example, when a large number of cells need to be classified and grouped.

"What is particularly useful about the result is that we can then get an understanding of what characteristics were used to sort the cells," added Gerber. Another potential area of application is neuroscience. Automated analysis of EEG signals could form the basis for assessments of cerebral status. It could even be used in breast cancer diagnosis, as mammography images could be analyzed to predict the results of a possible biopsy.

"The SPA algorithm can be applied in a number of fields, from the Lorenz model to the molecular dynamics of amino acids in water," concluded Horenko. "The process is easier and cheaper and the results are also better compared to those produced by the current state-of-the-art supercomputers."

The collaboration between the groups in Mainz and Lugano was carried out under the aegis of the newly-created Research Center Emergent Algorithmic Intelligence, which was established in April 2019 at JGU and is funded by the Carl Zeiss Foundation.

Image:
https://download.uni-mainz.de/presse/10_idn_spa_algorithmus_01.jpg [uni-mainz.de]
Use of SPA ensures that errors in temperature forecast are reduced significantly in comparison with those of other procedures
ill./©: Illia Horenko

Read more:
https://www.uni-mainz.de/presse/aktuell/8760_DEU_HTML.php [uni-mainz.de] – Carl Zeiss Foundation supports the establishment of a new research center for artificial intelligence at Mainz University (2 Oct. 2019)

Wissenschaftliche Ansprechpartner:

Junior Professor Dr. Susanne Gerber
Institute of Developmental Biology and Neurobiology (IDN) and
Center for Computational Sciences in Mainz ((CSM)
Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz
55099 Mainz, GERMANY
phone +49 6131 39-27331
e-mail: sugerber@uni-mainz.de
https://csg.uni-mainz.de/susanne-gerber/ [uni-mainz.de]

Originalpublikation:

S. Gerber et al., Low-cost scalable discretization, prediction, and feature selection for complex systems, Science Advances 6:5, 29 January 2020,
DOI:10.1126/sciadv.aaw0961
https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/5/eaaw0961/tab-pdf [sciencemag.org]

Weitere Informationen:

https://csg.uni-mainz.de/susanne-gerber [uni-mainz.de] – Susanne Gerber
https://csg.uni-mainz.de [uni-mainz.de] – Computational Systems Genetics Group at JGU
https://www.blogs.uni-mainz.de/fb10-compscien/ [uni-mainz.de] – Center for Computational Sciences in Mainz
https://www.ics.usi.ch/index.php/people-detail-page/20-illia-horenko [ics.usi.ch] – Illia Horenko at the Institute of Computational Science at Università della Svizzera italiana

Kathrin Voigt | idw - Informationsdienst Wissenschaft

Further reports about: Computational Sciences [innovations-report.com] Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz [innovations-report.com] algorithm [innovations-report.com] complex systems [innovations-report.com] computer systems [innovations-report.com] machine learning [innovations-report.com] processing power [innovations-report.com] volumes of data [innovations-report.com]

Original Submission