SoylentNews is people
SoylentNews
Submission Preview
Researchers find even small disturbances can trigger catastrophic storms
Story automatically generated by StoryBot Version 0.2.2 rel Testing.
Storybot ('Arthur T Knackerbracket') has been converted to Python3
Note: This is the complete story and will need further editing. It may also be covered
by Copyright and thus should be acknowledged and quoted rather than printed in its entirety.
FeedSource: [PhysOrg]
Time: 2020-05-13 19:50:39 UTC
Original URL: https://phys.org/news/2020-05-small-disturbances-trigger-catastrophic-storms.html [phys.org] using UTF-8 encoding.
Title: Researchers find even small disturbances can trigger catastrophic storms
--- --- --- --- --- --- --- Entire Story Below --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Researchers find even small disturbances can trigger catastrophic storms
Arthur T Knackerbracket has found the following story [phys.org]:
Click here to sign in withor
Forget Password? [sciencex.com]
Learn more [sciencex.com]
share this!
2
21
Share
May 13, 2020
You've probably seen the satellite images that show a hurricane developing: thick white clouds clumping together, arms spinning around a central eye as it heads for the coast.
googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1449240174198-2'); });
After decades of research, meteorologists still have questions about how hurricanes develop. Now, Florida State University researchers have found that even the smallest changes in atmospheric conditions [phys.org] could trigger a hurricane, information that will help scientists understand the processes that lead to these devastating storms.
"The whole motivation for this paper was that we still don't have that universal theoretical understanding of exactly how tropical cyclones [phys.org] form, and to really be able to forecast that storm-by-storm, it would help us to have that more solidly taken care of," said Jacob Carstens, a doctoral student in the Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science.
The research by Carstens and Assistant Professor Allison Wing has been published in the Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems.
Current theories on the formation of hurricanes agree that some sort of disturbance must exist to start the process that leads to a hurricane. Carstens used numerical models that started with simple conditions to better understand exactly how those disturbances arise.
"We're trying to go as bare bones as possible, looking at just how exactly clouds want to organize themselves without any of these external factors playing into it to form a tropical cyclone more efficiently," he said. "It's a way we can further round out our broader understanding and look more purely at the actual tropical cyclones themselves rather than the surrounding environment's impact on it."
The simulations started with mostly uniform conditions spread across the imaginary box where the model played out. Then, researchers added a tiny amount of random temperature fluctuations to kickstart the model and observed how the simulated clouds evolved.
Despite the random start to the simulation, the clouds didn't stay randomly arranged. They formed into clusters as the water vapor, thermal radiation and other factors interacted. As the clusters circulated through the simulated atmosphere, the researchers tracked when they formed hurricanes. They repeated the model at simulated latitudes between 0.1 degrees and 20 degrees north, representative of areas such as parts of western Africa, northern South America and the Caribbean. That range includes the latitudes where tropical cyclones typically form, along with latitudes very close to the equator where their formation is rare and less studied.
The scientists found that every simulation in latitudes between 10 and 20 degrees produced a major hurricane [phys.org], even from the stable conditions under which they began the simulation. These came a few days after a vortex first emerged well above the surface and affected its surrounding environment.
They also showed the possibility of cloud interaction contributing to the development of a tropical cyclone [phys.org] very close to the equator, which rarely occurs in nature but has still been observed as close as 1.4 degrees north away.
Hurricanes are dangerous weather events. Forecasting can help prevent deaths, but a big storm can still cause billions of dollars in damage. A better theoretical understanding of their formation will help meteorologists predict and prepare for these storms, both in short-term forecasts [phys.org] and long-term climate projections, and communicate their understanding to the public.
"It's becoming ever more important in our field that we connect with emergency managers, the general population [phys.org] and other local officials to advise them on what they can expect, how they should prepare and what sorts of impacts are going to be heading their way," Carstens said. "A more robust understanding of how tropical cyclones form can help us to better forecast their location, their track and their intensity. It really goes down the line and helps us to communicate sooner as well as more efficiently and eloquently to the public that really needs it."
Explore further
Feedback to editors
6 hours ago
6 hours ago
6 hours ago
7 hours ago
7 hours ago
51 minutes ago
59 minutes ago
1 hour ago
1 hour ago
1 hour ago
1 hour ago
1 hour ago
2 hours ago
2 hours ago
2 hours ago
May 11, 2020
May 10, 2020
May 08, 2020
May 02, 2020
Apr 30, 2020
Apr 27, 2020
More from Earth Sciences [physicsforums.com]
Mar 16, 2020
Mar 16, 2020
Apr 03, 2020
Apr 10, 2020
Mar 18, 2020
Mar 11, 2020
59 minutes ago
5 hours ago
8 hours ago
11 hours ago
6 hours ago
6 hours ago
Your feedback will go directly to Science X editors.
Thank you for taking your time to send in your valued opinion to Science X editors.
You can be assured our editors closely monitor every feedback sent and will take appropriate actions. Your opinions are important to us.
We do not guarantee individual replies due to extremely high volume of correspondence.
Your email address is used only to let the recipient know who sent the email. Neither your address nor the recipient's address will be used for any other purpose.
The information you enter will appear in your e-mail message and is not retained by Phys.org in any form.
Get weekly and/or daily updates delivered to your inbox.
You can unsubscribe at any time and we'll never share your details to third parties.
More information [sciencex.com]
Privacy policy [sciencex.com]
Medical Xpress covers all medical research advances and health news
Tech Xplore covers the latest engineering, electronics and technology advances
Science X Network offers the most comprehensive sci-tech news coverage on the web
This site uses cookies to assist with navigation, analyse your use of our services, and provide content from third parties.
By using our site, you acknowledge that you have read and understand our Privacy Policy [sciencex.com]
and Terms of Use [sciencex.com].
-- submitted from IRC
