Chatham House (of the eponymous rule) has new reporting and analysis of the climate crisis. They join the independent bodies sounding the alarm.
If emissions follow the trajectory set by current NDCs, there is a less than five per cent chance of keeping temperatures well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and less than one per cent chance of reaching the 1.5°C target set by the 2015 Paris Agreement.
Many of the impacts described in this research paper will be locked in by 2040, and become so severe they go beyond the limits of what many nations can adapt to.
https://www.chathamhouse.org/2021/09/climate-change-risk-assessment-2021 [chathamhouse.org]
Posted under 'security' because it's a medium- and long-term threat.