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Horror prediction for Aussie capitals [news.com.au]:

Sydney and Melbourne could be experiencing extreme temperatures of up to 50C if global temperatures rise by 2C and this could have profound health and economic impacts for residents of these cities.

The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report [www.ipcc.ch] released overnight looks at how communities and the environment are adapting to climate change, and what is needed to deal with increasing risks.

Temperatures in Australia have already increased by 1.4C — higher than the global average — with 2019 the warmest year ever recorded. As climate change worsens more hot days and heatwaves, as well as more extreme fire weather days in the south and east, are expected.

Other impacts include sea-level rise, less snow and changes to rainfall.

Macquarie University Professor of Biology Lesley Hughes said the world was heading towards catastrophic warming of over 2C.

“The report is very clear: any further delay in global action will miss the brief and closing window to secure a liveable future,” she said.

It’s estimated the increased floods, coastal inundation, wildfires, windstorms and heatwaves could be causing property damage of $91 billion a year by 2050, under the highest emission scenario (RCP8.5).

Climate-related damage could see property values could drop by $611 billion, something that already seems to be playing out in Lismore [news.com.au], NSW where some homes that have never been flooded were inundated for the first time ever this week.

However, climate change won’t just hurt people's property prices. It could also have impacts on human health, vegetation and infrastructure, the report predicts.

Our food may be changed with scientists already noticing a reduction in the size of Sydney rock oysters, and the die-off of farmed oysters during a heatwave.

Some fish species have became smaller while others became larger, and reductions in spawning stocks of abalone, prawns and rock lobsters has also been observed.

Heating up

The IPCC report pointed out that extreme temperatures alone could cost the city of Melbourne $1.9 billion between 2012 and 2051 — with around 84 per cent of this due to health-related expenses.

In Melbourne city, temperatures as high as 46.4C have already been recorded during times of catastrophic bushfires and heatwaves.

“Exposure to high temperatures at work is common in Australia, and the health consequences may include more accidents, acute heat stroke and chronic disease,” the report said.

The report notes global temperatures are expected to increase by up to 1.5C by 2050, even in the lowest emission scenario (RCP2.6), which would require the world to reach net zero emissions by 2050. Under the highest emission scenario, temperatures could soar by 2.5C.

There have already been an average of 106 heat-related deaths a year in Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne, attributable to climate change between 1991 and 2011.

Deaths in the three cities are expected to increase to around 600 a year in the coming decades, although keeping warming to around 1.5C could see this halved.

Extreme heat also threatens the liveability of some rural areas, particularly given communities’ reliance on outside physical work and older populations.

Link to mental health

Researchers have also noticed an association between extreme heat and decreased mental wellbeing, which is more marked in women than men.

As climatic patterns have changed, farmers in Western Australia reported heightened anxiety and rising self-perceived risks of depression and suicide.

Following the Black Saturday bushfires in Victoria in 2009, 10-15 per cent of the population in the most severely affected areas reported persistent fire-related post-traumatic stress disorder, depression and psychological distress.

We need to adapt

With many climate change impacts already locked in, the report has highlighted the importance of adaptation measures to help people cope with the changes.

In cities, strategies to combat urban heat can include expanding tree canopy and greenery, shading, sprays and heat-resistant and energy-efficient building design, including cool materials, and reflective or green roofs.

“Climate risk management is developing, but adaptive capacity, implementation, monitoring and evaluation are uneven across all scales of cities, settlements and infrastructure,” the report said.

Report co-author Professor Mark Howden of the Australian National University, said Australia and the rest of the world need to “aggressively pursue” emissions reductions as well as heavily invest and rapidly implement climate adaptation strategies to avoid the worst outcomes.

“Climate change impacts are here, they matter, they are mostly negative but, if implemented, adaptation can take the edge off them,” Prof Howden said.

“The latest IPCC report makes one thing crystal clear: adaptation policy, finance and practice have to be stepped up urgently if our systems are to keep pace with climate change.

“Adaptation is key to maintaining our health, our industries and our environment.”

How Australia is changing

In Australia, the annual frequency of days over 35C is projected to increase 20-70 per cent by 2030 under a medium scenario (RCP4.5).

Under the highest scenario, days could increase by 80 to a whopping 350 per cent by 2090.

For example, Perth may average 36 days over 35C by 2030 under the medium emissions scenario.

Concerningly, current 1-in-100 year floods in Australia would possibly occur several times a year.

Rainfall in northern Australia has increased since the 1970s and this trend could continue although this is uncertain. Tasmania could also get more winter rainfall.

Other areas like southern Australia will get less rainfall in winter and spring, while southwestern Victoria will get less autumn rainfall and western Tasmania will get less summer rainfall.

ANU Associate Professor Ruth Morgan, lead author of the report’s chapter on water, said climate change was already changing where it rains, when, and how much.

“We’re seeing more rainfall in the north, while in the south, droughts are becoming both more likely and severe,” Prof Morgan said.

“Climate change is also playing a major role in the drying trend underway in the southwest, affecting Perth and the wider region, from Geraldton down to Esperance.

“Less rain means that there will be less streamflow into the water catchments that provide water for Australia’s capital cities, so we will need to think carefully about where our water comes from and how we use it.

“The projected decrease of soil moisture and run-off means that there’s a greater likelihood of agricultural drought across Australia’s farming areas. Such changes are already reducing broadacre farm productivity and profitability.

Serious issue for Aussie homebuyers [news.com.au]The Aussie suburbs becoming heat sinks [news.com.au]

“We’ve already seen how drier and hotter conditions can lead to increased bushfire risk, with climate change partly attributable for the fires across Australia during the summer of 2019/2020.

“And rising sea levels could lead to saltwater inundation of culturally significant sites and waterholes across northern Australia.”

Read related topics:Melbourne [news.com.au]Sydney [news.com.au]Time Is Now [news.com.au]

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