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hubie [soylentnews.org] writes:

Documents show internal predictions were as good as contemporary science but executives publicly downplayed their significance [chemistryworld.com]:

The first systematic analysis of data from over a hundred ExxonMobil documents has shown that the company's scientists have accurately modelled global warming caused by fossil fuels since the late 1970s. However, company executives chose to publicly denigrate climate models, insist there was no scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change, and claim the science was highly uncertain when their own scientists were telling them the opposite, the study's authors say. Their findings are likely to figure in court proceedings around the world as fossil fuel companies face increasing legal and political attacks for their role in climate change.

[...] 'Exxon leadership had specific, accurate, state-of the art scientific information, presented to them by their own scientists,' says Oreskes. 'And that science was consistent with what academic and government scientists were saying at the same time. Our findings highlight the stark hypocrisy of ExxonMobil [chief executives] Lee Raymond and Rex Tillerson, who for decades insisted on the high degree of 'uncertainty' in climate models, when, in fact, their own scientists had produced models that were not highly uncertain, and which, in hindsight, we can say were highly accurate.'

[...] Another new finding involves ExxonMobil's claim that the science was too uncertain to know when – or if – human-caused global warming might be measurable. In fact, ExxonMobil scientists in the early 1980s offered the date of 2000±5 years, which turned out to be correct, says Oreskes. 'The [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)] first declared man-made climate change to be 'discernible' in 1995 so they got that right, too.'

[...] The study's findings are hugely significant, says international lawyer Stephen Humphreys from London School of Economics, UK. 'What is extraordinary about this analysis is that it demonstrates a near-perfect grasp of climate science on the part of Exxon scientists almost a decade before the UN's scientists reached the same conclusions. The analysis shows that models made at Exxon from 1982 – six years before the IPCC was even founded – correctly predicted the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere over the next 40 years, and the rise in global temperatures this would produce, with astonishing accuracy. As the study points out, Exxon scientists were arguably the leading climate scientists in the world at this time. Indeed, in the 1980s, Exxon knew more about fossil-fuel induced climate change than anyone else. [But] instead of acting on this knowledge, they suppressed it.'

Previously:
    Trial Set in New York on Exxon's Climate Statements [soylentnews.org]
    Royal Dutch Shell Knew Too: Decades-Long Climate Lies [soylentnews.org]
    Investigation Finds Exxon Ignored its Own Early Climate Change Warnings [soylentnews.org]

Journal Reference:
G. Supran, S. Rahmstorf, and N. Oreskes, Assessing ExxonMobil's global warming projections, Science, 379, 2023. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abk0063 [doi.org]

Original Submission