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hubie [soylentnews.org] writes:

Here's why it matters to you [colorado.edu]:

New University of Colorado Boulder research shows the number of farms globally will shrink in half as the size of the average existing farms doubles by the end of the 21st century, posing significant risks to the world's food systems.

Published today in the journal Nature Sustainability [nature.com], the study is the first to track the number and size of farms year-over-year, from the 1960s and projecting through 2100.

The study shows that even rural, farm-dependent communities in Africa and Asia will experience a drop in the number of operating farms.

[...] His analysis found that the number of farms around the world would drop from 616 million in 2020 to 272 million in 2100. A key reason: As a country's economy grows, more people migrate to urban areas, leaving fewer people in rural areas to tend the land.

A decline in the number of farms and an increase in farm size has been happening in the United States and Western Europe for decades. The most recent data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture indicates there were 200,000 fewer farms in 2022 than in 2007.

Mehrabi's analysis found that a turning point from farm creation to widespread consolidation will begin to occur as early as 2050 in communities across Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, Oceania, Latin America and the Caribbean. Sub-Saharan Africa will follow the same course later in the century, the research found.

It also shows that even if the total amount of farmland doesn't change across the globe in coming years, fewer people will own and farm what land there is available. The trend could threaten biodiversity in a time where biodiversity conservation is top of mind.

"Larger farms typically have less biodiversity and more monocultures," Mehrabi said. "Smaller farms typically have more biodiversity and crop diversity, which makes them more resilient to pest outbreaks and climate shocks."

And it's not just biodiversity: Food supply is also at risk. Mehrabi's previous research shows the world's smallest farms make up just 25% of the world's agricultural land but harvest one-third of the world's food.

[...] "Currently, we have around 600 million farms feeding the world, and they're carrying 8 billion people on their shoulders," Mehrabi said. "By the end of the century, we'll likely have half the number of farmers feeding even more people. We really need to think about how we can have the education and support systems in place to support those farmers."

Journal Reference:
Mehrabi, Z. Likely decline in the number of farms globally by the middle of the century. Nat Sustain (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-023-01110-y [doi.org]

Original Submission