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hellcat writes:

From the article. https://thepenngazette.com/demographic-winter-is-coming/ [thepenngazette.com]

Is the world’s population destined to shrink? Penn economics professor JF-V puts it bluntly.
"If you’re 55 years or younger, you are likely to witness something no human has observed for around 60,000 years, not even during wars or pandemics: a systematic decrease in the world population.”
His analysis of trends in more than 180 countries suggests that in many places, UN estimates of fertility rates are probably too high.
His calculations suggest that a crucial moment has arrived: the global fertility rate, may have already dipped below the replacement rate. He allows that the global population is still growing, but expects it to peak in roughly 30 years, with a steep decline unfolding in its wake. When the transition comes—when the world’s population eventually tips into contraction—he believes the impacts will be disruptive and swift.
Dramatic declines in childbirths are evident in every region of the world, across rich, poor, and middle-income countries alike.
Shifting social norms are partly responsible, as young people don't view parenthood fitting into their lives. “Raising children is no longer a priority for many young people,” he says, “either in the more traditional societies of eastern Asia or the more progressive countries of northern Europe.”

[my aside] Fun fact, his findings parallel those made by my own UPenn research group back in 1981. We used a different technique, and could only "narrow" the event window down to the latter half of this century.
What kind of economy will it be where there is one worker for every 3 old farts like me?

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