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takyon [soylentnews.org] writes:

The Platform [theplatform.net] reports on forecasts by the analysts at Wikibon [wikibon.com] predicting that flash arrays will be cheaper than disk arrays within a decade and replace them in enterprise datacenters:

[Wikibon [wikibon.org] CTO David] Floyer's thinking is outlined in a new report, Enterprise Flash vs. HDD Projections 2012-2026 [wikibon.com], which just came out, and it is unabashedly aggressive in forecasting the demise of the disk drive in the datacenter for tier one (or primary) storage. Even as incumbent disk array makers peddle hybrid machines mixing disk and flash and trot out all-flash arrays to compete with the myriad – and often well-funded – upstarts, most of the vendors say again and again that they expect to see disk drives in the datacenter for the foreseeable future. To his credit, Floyer put a stake in the ground – and into the disk drive.

There is a lot going on underneath that seemingly simple chart above [theplatform.net]. The blue area shows the spending on flash storage among both enterprises and hyperscalers added together over the forecast period, and it shows it rising from a mere $490 million in 2012 to $2.54 billion last year, to $4.55 billion this year and $7.54 billion in 2016. The growth doesn't just stop there, though – it accelerates as the cost per TB of flash storage is predicted to come way down over the next decade. At the array level, flash cost something on the order of $20,000 per TB three years ago, according to Floyer's model, and will drop to $4,320 per TB this year. The cost of disk capacity in all-disk or hybrid arrays is still coming down, oddly enough, dropping from $2,268 per TB in 2012 to $1,070 per TB this year. So, flash is still around 4X the cost of disk, give or take. But that is only on traditional arrays. When you weave enterprise server SANs and hyperscale server SANs into the model – inexpensive and often clustered servers with beefed up storage capability – prices really come down. An all-flash server SAN costs about $672 per TB this year, says Floyer, and an all-disk server SAN will run a piddling $87 per TB.

By the end of the forecast period in 2026, the cost of flash in either hybrid or all-flash arrays will be about $16 per TB, compared to $26 per TB for disks in all-disk or hybrid arrays. You read that right, disks will be more expensive than flash, and the crossover will come in 2023 in Floyer's model within hybrid or all-media arrays. Server SANs, whether based on disk or flash, will continue to be much cheaper than arrays with their fancy controllers and architectures, although the gap gets pretty small by the time 2026 rolls around. Disks will be slightly cheaper in Server SANs than flash for a reason that we wish Floyer would explain.

Samsung recently unveiled a 15.36 TB 2.5" SSD [www.cbc.ca], and [through-silicon vias may be able to be combined with vertical NAND] to boost capacity, capacity per dollar, and reduce operating expenses.

[link to Toshiba story]

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