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posted by martyb on Sunday May 17 2020, @09:02PM   Printer-friendly [Skip to comment(s)]
from the the-answer,-my-friend,-is-blowin'-in-the-wind dept.

Arthur T Knackerbracket has found the following story:

After decades of research, meteorologists still have questions about how hurricanes develop. Now, Florida State University researchers have found that even the smallest changes in atmospheric conditions could trigger a hurricane, information that will help scientists understand the processes that lead to these devastating storms.

"The whole motivation for this paper was that we still don't have that universal theoretical understanding of exactly how tropical cyclones form, and to really be able to forecast that storm-by-storm, it would help us to have that more solidly taken care of," said Jacob Carstens, a doctoral student in the Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science.

The research by Carstens and Assistant Professor Allison Wing has been published in the Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems.

[...] The simulations started with mostly uniform conditions spread across the imaginary box where the model played out. Then, researchers added a tiny amount of random temperature fluctuations to kickstart the model and observed how the simulated clouds evolved.

Despite the random start to the simulation, the clouds didn't stay randomly arranged. They formed into clusters as the water vapor, thermal radiation and other factors interacted. As the clusters circulated through the simulated atmosphere, the researchers tracked when they formed hurricanes. They repeated the model at simulated latitudes between 0.1 degrees and 20 degrees north, representative of areas such as parts of western Africa, northern South America and the Caribbean. That range includes the latitudes where tropical cyclones typically form, along with latitudes very close to the equator where their formation is rare and less studied.

The scientists found that every simulation in latitudes between 10 and 20 degrees produced a major hurricane, even from the stable conditions under which they began the simulation. These came a few days after a vortex first emerged well above the surface and affected its surrounding environment.

Journal Reference
Jacob D. Carstens, Allison A. Wing. Tropical Cyclogenesis From Self‐Aggregated Convection in Numerical Simulations of Rotating Radiative‐Convective Equilibrium [open], Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (DOI: 10.1029/2019MS002020)

-- submitted from IRC


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  • (Score: 5, Funny) by mhajicek on Sunday May 17 2020, @09:14PM (8 children)

    by mhajicek (51) on Sunday May 17 2020, @09:14PM (#995464)

    Nuff said.

    • (Score: -1, Troll) by Ethanol-fueled on Sunday May 17 2020, @09:22PM (1 child)

      by Ethanol-fueled (2792) on Sunday May 17 2020, @09:22PM (#995467) Homepage

      All it takes is one Rodney King beating or Ahrmad Rahbery shooting to trigger a storm of chimpouts in the Los Angeles and Chicago metropolitan areas. And the cops run when muhfuggas got guns, knowmsayin'?

      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday May 17 2020, @11:06PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Sunday May 17 2020, @11:06PM (#995499)

        Herd behavior...
        Herd behavior is the behavior of individuals in a group acting collectively without centralized direction.

    • (Score: 1) by RandomFactor on Sunday May 17 2020, @10:26PM (1 child)

      by RandomFactor (3682) Subscriber Badge on Sunday May 17 2020, @10:26PM (#995484) Journal

      Goldblum was right.

      --
      В «Правде» нет известий, в «Известиях» нет правды
      • (Score: 3, Funny) by Gaaark on Monday May 18 2020, @12:23AM

        by Gaaark (41) on Monday May 18 2020, @12:23AM (#995529) Journal

        Life, uh uh uh... finds a way.

        --
        --- Please remind me if I haven't been civil to you: I'm channeling MDC. ---Gaaark 2.0 ---
    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday May 17 2020, @10:35PM (2 children)

      by Anonymous Coward on Sunday May 17 2020, @10:35PM (#995487)

      Don't let those innocent looking butterflies fool you. They may look harmless but unbeknownst to you they are responsible for all sorts of catastrophes. We need to call the exterminator!!!!

      • (Score: 3, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday May 17 2020, @10:46PM (1 child)

        by Anonymous Coward on Sunday May 17 2020, @10:46PM (#995489)

        OK, I read the Wikipedia article on this.

        "The phrase refers to the idea that a butterfly's wings might create tiny changes in the atmosphere that may ultimately alter the path of a tornado or delay, accelerate or even prevent the occurrence of a tornado in another location."

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect [wikipedia.org]

        So it could reduce or increase the impact of disaster and it could even prevent or cause such a disaster. So I guess it is safe to say that the net effects probably cancel each other out. For each disaster those little critters have caused, in all likelihood, they have prevented another disaster.

        So, as a whole, the butterflies have been probably cleared of any net wrongdoing.

        We just need to prosecute the bad ones.

        • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday May 17 2020, @11:03PM

          by Anonymous Coward on Sunday May 17 2020, @11:03PM (#995497)

          Kill them all. Let God sort them out.

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday May 18 2020, @02:21PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Monday May 18 2020, @02:21PM (#995784)

      Trump was right. [abc.net.au]

  • (Score: 2) by BK on Sunday May 17 2020, @10:49PM (1 child)

    by BK (4868) Subscriber Badge on Sunday May 17 2020, @10:49PM (#995491)

    I have to ask:

    Small disturbances, sure, but what about great ones?

    If millions of voices were to cry out in terror and be suddenly silenced, would that make a bigger hurricane?

    --
    ...but you HAVE heard of me.
    • (Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Monday May 18 2020, @12:40AM

      by Anonymous Coward on Monday May 18 2020, @12:40AM (#995541)

      Don't give them any ideas. Currently they all pray facing Mecca. If they all faced, say, 20 deg to the left of Mecca the vortex might be enough?

  • (Score: -1, Offtopic) by Anonymous Coward on Monday May 18 2020, @01:03AM

    by Anonymous Coward on Monday May 18 2020, @01:03AM (#995549)

    Your farty ass thinks it's a joke, but it's your smelly assholes that bring down the evil tornadoes.

    Smelly Fucks.

  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday May 18 2020, @06:40PM

    by Anonymous Coward on Monday May 18 2020, @06:40PM (#995958)

    Small disturbances like off by one errors?

  • (Score: 1) by anubi on Monday May 18 2020, @06:54PM (1 child)

    by anubi (2828) on Monday May 18 2020, @06:54PM (#995964) Journal

    This whole book looked at this phenomena in depth.

    40 Years ago.

    I got into it trying to understand control systems and turbulence.

    I later found it interesting in making encryption algorithms.

    Yes, my fart could initiate a typhoon on the other side of the planet! ( But many other things are also involved ). Ahh, for the want of a nail, the shoe was lost ... And so on.

    --
    "Prove all things; hold fast that which is good." [KJV: I Thessalonians 5:21]
    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday May 18 2020, @08:18PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Monday May 18 2020, @08:18PM (#995990)

      euler or was it gauss, had a building/observatory built with no iron content .. to study magnets and stuff?

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