The Global Semiconductor Market: China Deploys Sun Tzu to Prevail in the Chip War - Global Research:
Let's cut to the chase: with or without a sanction juggernaut,China simply won't be expelled from the global semiconductor market.
The real amount of chip supply Huawei has in stock for their smart phone business may remain an open question.
But the most important point is that in the next few years – remember Made in China 2025 remains in effect – the Chinese will be manufacturing the necessary equipment to produce 5 nm chips of equivalent or even better quality than what's coming from Taiwan, South Korea and Japan.
Conversations with IT experts from Russia, ASEAN and Huawei reveal the basic contours of the road map ahead.
They explain that what could be described as a limitation of quantum physics is preventing a steady move from 5nm to 3nm chips. This means that the next breakthroughs may come from other semiconductor materials and techniques. So China, in this aspect, is practically at the same level of research as Taiwan, South Korea and Japan.
Additionally, there is no knowledge gap – or a communication problem – between Chinese and Taiwanese engineers. And the predominant modus operandi remains the revolving door.
China's breakthroughs involve a crucial switch from silicon to carbon. Chinese research is totally invested in it, and is nearly ready to transpose their lab work into industrial production.
In parallel, the Chinese are updating the US-privileged photo-lithography procedure to get nanometer chips to a new, non-photo lithography procedure capable of producing smaller and cheaper chips.
As much as Chinese companies, moving forward, will be buying every possible stage of chip manufacturing business in sight, whatever the cost, this will proceed in parallel to top US semiconductor firms like Qualcomm going no holds barred to skirt sanctions and continue to supply chips to Huawei. That's already the case with Intel and AMD.
(Score: 2, Offtopic) by c0lo on Thursday October 01 2020, @02:53PM (2 children)
And America is wasting time with an orange clown. Fuck!
https://www.youtube.com/@ProfSteveKeen https://soylentnews.org/~MichaelDavidCrawford
(Score: 2, Insightful) by JoeMerchant on Thursday October 01 2020, @03:25PM
All of this has happened before:
https://history.state.gov/milestones/1937-1945/american-isolationism [state.gov]
And shall happen again.
So say we all.
🌻🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 1) by khallow on Friday October 02 2020, @12:27PM
(Score: 3, Touché) by JoeMerchant on Thursday October 01 2020, @03:23PM (7 children)
Somewhere around the 1um mark they were bellyaching about the limitations of physics...
🌻🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 01 2020, @03:50PM (2 children)
If you've heard of any plans for pushing past 2nm, I'm open to hear about them. We're reaching that point that there literally are just not enough atoms to reliably make a transistor.
At 1um, there were still ideas. Now, even the major manufactures are admitting that they don't have any actual solid concepts for pushing past 2-3nm apart from a complete rethinking about what a chip is made of (ie carbon nanotubes or something of the sort). Not too mention, to even reach 5/7/11nm, manufacturers, aka marketing, have been playing fast and loose with their definitions of feature size.
(Score: 4, Informative) by takyon on Thursday October 01 2020, @07:09PM (1 child)
With the caveat that the node names are mostly marketing, there's some ideas about "1.5nm" and "1nm". Intel also put "1.4nm" on one of its roadmaps [soylentnews.org] for 2029, below "3nm" and "2nm".
https://semiengineering.com/transistor-options-beyond-3nm/ [semiengineering.com]
https://semiengineering.com/making-chips-at-3nm-and-beyond/ [semiengineering.com]
[SIG] 10/28/2017: Soylent Upgrade v14 [soylentnews.org]
(Score: 2) by HiThere on Thursday October 01 2020, @08:32PM
Yeah, but that's an important caveat. OTOH, they weren't *entirely* marketing.
Javascript is what you use to allow unknown third parties to run software you have no idea about on your computer.
(Score: 4, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 01 2020, @03:56PM (2 children)
"Limitations of physics" at that point would have been the limits of the photolithography process. This process is limited by wavelength of the light you are using because as your features approach that size diffraction interference wrecks the image.
This "limitation" was exceeded when someone came up with the idea that (roughly) instead of projecting an image that would be ruined by diffraction, we can use clever tricks to arrange for the interference pattern to literally be the desired image.
That breakthrough got us multiple orders of magnitude of improvements. The "limitations of physics" we are talking about today are different: they are related to the semiconductor material itself rather than the manufacturing process. So it is likely that exceeding this will require another breakthrough, and this time it will probably be in materials.
(Score: 2, Touché) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 01 2020, @05:43PM (1 child)
But WHY is my computer slower than ever fucking before???
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 01 2020, @09:57PM
software bloat
(Score: 2) by richtopia on Thursday October 01 2020, @04:56PM
Isn't the 1um process node when ASML came on the scene?
I understand your point, we will innovate out of physical hurdles. The article is using this as an argument that there is an opportunity for China to outpace other semi manufacturers; everyone is hitting a barrier and there is an opportunity for a new player to innovate and win.
(Score: 0, Offtopic) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 01 2020, @03:44PM (5 children)
since no idiot will ever negotiate a deal with the Orange Liar. There is a reason why no American bank will lend to him anymore no matter what collateral - he's a liar. And no sane partner will negotiate with him either since he will simply renege on any "deal" a few weeks later. Just as an example, see the instant reinstatement of tariffs on Canadian Aluminum after the "renegotiated NAFTA". Bottom line, DO NOT TRUST A FUCKING LIAR.
If America keeps him as a "leader", then America is fucked as a wanna-be leader of the world. All that will be left is a Warfare State that wastes resources on wars.
https://www.cbc.ca/radio/ideas/massive-military-spending-is-turning-america-into-a-warfare-state-warns-ex-u-s-army-colonel-1.5738677 [www.cbc.ca]
(Score: -1, Offtopic) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 01 2020, @03:59PM
A more relevant political factor is that many are waiting until after the election to see what US's stance will be for the next four years. Joe will have a different view on it all than Don.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 01 2020, @04:23PM (3 children)
Got any evidence for that or is it just more Qookieness?
(Score: 0, Offtopic) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 01 2020, @07:20PM (2 children)
LMGTFY
https://www.propublica.org/article/trump-inc-podcast-deutsche-bank-donald-trump [propublica.org]
https://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/finance/347624-american-banks-dont-support-trump-voters-soon-wont-either [thehill.com]
https://themoscowproject.org/collusion/banks-refuse-lend-trump-citing-donald-risk/ [themoscowproject.org]
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 01 2020, @09:44PM
I make a habit of believing stuff journalists say without evidence.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday October 02 2020, @12:40AM
Did you actually *read* those
The first one is a hit piece to tie trump to a bank that is terrible. It was also settled in your third artcle. Meaning they came to an agreement of payback and writeoff. Meaning that bank did not want it to goto court.
The second is another hit piece that leads off about betting speculation and finishing his first year (2017) "Speculating what will doom President Donald J. Trump has become a Washington parlor game. British betting companies have been putting odds this summer at better than 50-50 that Trump will not last his first term. Las Vegas has odds at up to 33 percent that the president will be gone by year's end. But for an early exit to occur, whether it be from resignation or impeachment, the much ballyhooed Trump base would have to lose its faith. "
The third one basically is the same thing happening today with all entertainment companies. Anyone overexposed to that will take a hit on the bottom line. Oh and they came to an agreement to keep it out of court. But with a nice twist on the end it was the scary 'russians'.
But sure no one will loan Trump any money. /s
Pull the other one...
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 01 2020, @06:14PM
maybe the problem is that the top money echelon cannot get "in" on woway.
they're used to just buying or using political pressure to become "owners" of a business or whole business sector. live of the dividends?
i am preeetttyyy sure that all these "securiti" concerns will vanish like the morning mist as soon as woway kowtows to these rich american shadow conglomates that do nothing but own paper and influence the biggest enforcement industry (usa military), by letting them become "shadow owners" of woway ...
(Score: 0, Troll) by fakefuck39 on Thursday October 01 2020, @08:18PM
taiwan uses equipment from japan for their process - they don't make their own, nor do they have the skill to. and japan doesn't sell to china. there absolutely is a technology gap. the chinese aren't any good at any kind of innovation. they take stuff other countries share in order to do business in their country, and make a shitty copy of it. that's all they know how to do. they can hire all the engineers from taiwan they want - those engineers don't know how to create the hardware for lithography - they only know how to use the japanese tech.
(Score: 3, Funny) by SunTzuWarmaster on Thursday October 01 2020, @08:19PM (2 children)
(Score: 2) by tangomargarine on Thursday October 01 2020, @09:55PM
I'm assuming this title makes about as much sense as
except I guess they got to reference something from Chinese history in the process
"Is that really true?" "I just spent the last hour telling you to think for yourself! Didn't you hear anything I said?"
(Score: 2) by Mojibake Tengu on Friday October 02 2020, @10:47AM
Rust programming language offends both my Intelligence and my Spirit.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by aiwarrior on Thursday October 01 2020, @10:04PM (9 children)
China is a strong contender and in the way to progress but this article seems to give super human abilities to Chinese industries which are not to be seen. The AMSL euv lithography equipment is damn unique in the world, and the result of huge capital investment of the whole world's foundries. This seems written as a kind of juvenile understanding of how research and engineering works. It is hard, it takes long and you need the right engineering capacity to make it work. It may even be unfeasible to reinvent some key tech to get to the status quo, see intel, much less leapfrog. Speaking of Intel. Intel is in the game for decades, decades, and it has hit a wall and massive difficulties. And before you say that Intel management sucks, think again and remind yourself that AMD sold its foundries and became fabless that is another example of how hard it is. So that is my reasoning for saying "what a bunch of bullshit". I will not even comment on the carbon techno babel. A technology that does not exist but somehow is ready for mass production. Right....
(Score: 2) by c0lo on Thursday October 01 2020, @10:35PM (5 children)
Well, China thanks you from investing in research, they are going to build on top of it, switching from silicon to carbon (hold your horses, read to the end)
And what do make you think China isn't building those? It's not like they have an inherent limit in what they can build while you throw trillions into MIC and electoral advertising.
It's good for that you abstain, lest your ignorance in the domain is exposed in full.
Here's one example: https://soylentnews.org/article.pl?sid=19/09/03/1721227 [soylentnews.org]
https://www.youtube.com/@ProfSteveKeen https://soylentnews.org/~MichaelDavidCrawford
(Score: 1) by khallow on Friday October 02 2020, @04:29AM (4 children)
How about lack of evidence? I find it remarkable how we have this vague story - China is going to do something awesome with carbon by um 2025? 2049? No mention is ever made of how.
(Score: 2) by c0lo on Friday October 02 2020, @04:46AM (3 children)
Yes, those guys at MIT making a RISC from soot? They're super-smart, nobody's gonna match them ever.
How about you write a letter to Mr. President Pooh and ask him to put up or shut those Canadians up?
https://www.youtube.com/@ProfSteveKeen https://soylentnews.org/~MichaelDavidCrawford
(Score: 1) by khallow on Friday October 02 2020, @12:16PM (2 children)
(Score: 2) by c0lo on Friday October 02 2020, @05:05PM (1 child)
It demonstrates the OP was wrong in his "A technology that does not exist".
Some way to go to production, granted, but the technology exists.
https://www.youtube.com/@ProfSteveKeen https://soylentnews.org/~MichaelDavidCrawford
(Score: 2) by aiwarrior on Saturday October 03 2020, @07:56PM
I stand corrected, the technology exists, so let me rephrase: The technology exists but scalability, profitability and mass production is unknown. I think the tech for quantum computing is more developed than these carbon chips. The point stands: the article is fluff. Even the article of MIT sounds fluff (It mentions the last iteration on the tech had 178 CNFETS but no number on the new process). Did you notice that the transistors would need freaking platinum? Sorry but the chineese are not about to leapfrog current state of the art foundries with a tech that ran an hello world in the lab, in about 10 years.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday October 02 2020, @12:43AM (2 children)
Intel one of the worlds leading makers of chips is having a tough time of it. Yet somehow magically the Chinese have it all figured out. This is a 3 layer deep article ghost written by someone in China. To give it an air of 'we are awesome'.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday October 02 2020, @02:49AM (1 child)
Written by someone who thinks the USA is most awesome and no one else can possibly catch up and overtake.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Friday October 02 2020, @12:20PM
Because vaporware is totally different when it's done by unspecified Chinese. Intel at least has a history of making real product.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday October 02 2020, @02:06AM
from the art-of-war dept.
(Score: 0, Spam) by nobita88 on Friday October 02 2020, @08:18AM
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday October 04 2020, @07:16AM
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