The variant has grabbed attention, but with such limited data, the risk is unclear:
A remarkably mutated coronavirus variant classified as BA.2.86 seized scientists' attention last week as it popped up in four countries, including the US.
So far, the overall risk posed by the new subvariant is unclear. It's possible it could lead to a new wave of infection; it's also possible (perhaps most likely) it could fizzle out completely. Scientists simply don't have enough information to know. But, what is very clear is that the current precipitous decline in coronavirus variant monitoring is extremely risky.
[...] What grabbed quick attention is BA.2.86's large number of mutations, particularly in the genetic code for its critical spike protein—the protein the virus uses to latch onto and enter human cells. BA.2.86 has 34 mutations in its spike gene relative to BA.2, the omicron sublineage from which it descended. This number of spike mutations between BA.2.86 and BA.2 is chillingly similar to the number of mutations seen between the original omicron (BA.1) and the ancestral Wuhan strain. The evolutionary jump from Wuhan to BA.1 caused a towering peak of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations in early 2022. But, experts are skeptical that BA.2.86 could produce a rivaling wave, given the extensive levels of immunity in the population from both repeat vaccinations and infections.
[...] Perhaps the biggest question left unanswered about BA.2.86 is how well it will spread relative to other variants in circulation, namely XBB.1.5, EG.5, FL.1.5.1, and others. For BA.2.86 to cause its own wave, it must couple its antibody-escaping abilities with changes that make it more easily transmissible than other variants. So far, there's simply not enough data to know if this is the case or not.
Still, experts like Bloom are not alarmed. "The most likely scenario is this variant is less transmissible than current dominant variants, and so never spreads widely. This is the fate of most new SARS-CoV-2 variants," he wrote in his analysis.
But even if BA.2.86 does what Bloom sees as mostly likely—fade away to an esoteric evolutionary anomaly—it should still raise alarm over the current state of our virus monitoring, as experts at the World Health Organization have repeatedly warned about.
Part of the reason there is so little data on BA.2.86 is that there is relatively little data on circulating variants in general. In early 2022, at the height of pandemic genomic surveillance, scientists worldwide submitted nearly 100,000 coronavirus genetic sequences per week to the public genomic database (GISAID). In the past month, however, weekly GISAID submissions have averaged around just 5,000.
In the US, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has likewise seen a perilous drop in monitoring. In early 2022, the agency collected data from nearly 100,000 COVID-19 tests per week. Now, amid a summer wave with test positivity on the rise again, the test volume is just 40,000. And the agency only has enough genomic surveillance data to estimate variant prevalence for three of the country's 10 health regions.
[...] But things have only gotten worse since then. In October 2022, for instance, scientists submitted over 20,000 coronavirus sequences per week to GISAID, compared with the current average of around 5,000.
(Score: 0, Troll) by XivLacuna on Tuesday August 29 2023, @02:52AM (13 children)
Don't forget to get your mystery science juice that hasn't been properly tested and proven to lower transmission and the effects of the virus, or else you want to kill grandma again. Drastic rise in heart issues is because of long kung flu and certainly not Mystery Science Juice Pfizer 3000.
Also don't forget to shove Qtips up your nose and use our magic 8-ball COVID tests. Only $70 for peace of mind and a hall pass out of lockdown. Also the science says wear cloth masks to signal your compliance and maybe our good vibes will magically stop something smaller than a smoke particle from infesting our meat suits.
Srsly I fucking hate how sheep are going to comply with this bullshit. Branch Covidians shaming us for not playing along with their religion.
Amazing how people stopped dying when they stopped strapping ventilators on faces.
(Score: 0, Funny) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 29 2023, @04:23AM (4 children)
Yes, we must track everybody with the 5G vaccine
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 29 2023, @05:19AM
s/covid/flu
(Score: -1, Offtopic) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 29 2023, @07:21PM (2 children)
Troll
Humorless twits!
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 29 2023, @08:36PM (1 child)
Offtopic
Jeeze! What a buzzkill! This place is run by a bunch of drama queens these days!
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday August 30 2023, @12:43AM
Have fun you guys...
https://www.naturalnews.com/2023-08-29-ten-obvious-lessons-every-intelligent-person-should-have-learned-from-covid.html [naturalnews.com]
(Score: 3, Touché) by Mojibake Tengu on Tuesday August 29 2023, @08:43AM (7 children)
Do not press on companions who already ran out of their brain juice...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dGwzPSsoIds [youtube.com]
Respect Authorities. Know your social status. Woke responsibly.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday August 29 2023, @03:45PM (6 children)
Even if we accept the profoundly stupid assertions of the grandparent post - the person in this thread who genuinely has run out of brain juice - such testing helps us anticipate the politically exploitable problems.
I find it interesting how concerned some idiots are about the exploitability of sheep, but extremely disinterested in solving that problem. Why are they complaining? Because they aren't the ones in charge?
(Score: 3, Informative) by Mojibake Tengu on Tuesday August 29 2023, @04:55PM (4 children)
He's perfectly right about covidism being a cult, objectively and observably in all aspects isomorphic to religion. How would you suggest to solve a religion?
Why such people are complaining is obvious: they found themselves to be under well-organized mass attack. Not because they are not in charge of anything.
I myself identify covidism as just a tiny faction of the Cult of Poisoners.
Respect Authorities. Know your social status. Woke responsibly.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday August 29 2023, @05:40PM (3 children)
Let it be.
Maybe, but he still seems peculiarly disinterested in doing anything to fix what's causing this well-organized mass attack. But I suppose that could come from being an idiot? Able to complaining endlessly about problems, but not able to take that one step further to thinking about fixing those problems.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 29 2023, @07:25PM (1 child)
That's because history shows that proposing a real solution quickly gets you tagged as a loony conspiracy theorist, so screw it
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday August 29 2023, @08:03PM
I doubt he will appear any less a loony conspiracy theorist otherwise. What he already said was pretty damning. For me, the real demonstration of loony conspiracy theorist is labeling without even the slightest attempt at supportin that label that a covid test is a "magic 8 ball". That demonstrates a cool disregard for facts or how human communication works.
(Score: 2) by The Vocal Minority on Thursday August 31 2023, @03:30AM
Or...work towards providing a viable alternative.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday August 30 2023, @12:56AM
Sheep. Don't let them eat any of this.
https://censored.news [censored.news]
Warning...this is raw feed. A lot of it isn't any good. Browse this site only if your bullshit detector is in good order. You will need it. There be gems here. And lies. You must decide for yourself which is which.
(Score: 4, Touché) by krishnoid on Tuesday August 29 2023, @03:17AM
-1, Offtopic [soylentnews.org] my ass :0)
(Score: 3, Troll) by darkfeline on Tuesday August 29 2023, @05:16AM (7 children)
Just in time for the election as scheduled. From what I remember a month ago, the masking is going to come back in a few months, then the lockdowns a few months after that? The conspiracy theories come so quickly, I can never keep track of when they graduate to fact status.
Join the SDF Public Access UNIX System today!
(Score: 5, Touché) by Immerman on Tuesday August 29 2023, @02:23PM
Yes, shocking, truly shocking that a severe respiratory infection comes back in force every cold+flu season. Obviously a vast conspiracy by the Keebler elves to slip their chocolaty 5g mind control chips into our cookies!
(Score: 3, Touché) by epitaxial on Tuesday August 29 2023, @02:35PM (2 children)
Which election? https://ballotpedia.org/Elections_calendar [ballotpedia.org]
(Score: 5, Funny) by kolie on Tuesday August 29 2023, @04:51PM (1 child)
Dude get on board already! Ofcourse it's the one they are stealing again. Ffs.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday August 29 2023, @05:44PM
(Score: 2) by helel on Tuesday August 29 2023, @04:27PM
Do you ever get tired of your predictions getting proven wrong?
(Score: 2) by Tork on Tuesday August 29 2023, @05:10PM
Don't worry, soon there'll be a caravan of men in dresses approaching the border so you can verbally fellate a rich man who needs your donations.
🏳️🌈 Proud Ally 🏳️🌈
(Score: 2) by https on Tuesday August 29 2023, @05:11PM
In order for protective mask mandates to come back, public health officials would have to admit it was a mistake to remove them in the first place.
Don't be holding your breath waiting for that to happen, unless blue is a good color on you.
Offended and laughing about it.
(Score: 4, Funny) by Beryllium Sphere (r) on Tuesday August 29 2023, @06:56AM (3 children)
Not every place is doing wastewater monitoring all the time. It's wonderful for catching trends before they show up in hospitals or tests. It fills the gaps left by uneven testing.
But when I wrote to my local government to advocate it, I got back that the sewer management considered the idea bizarre and experimental and NIH.
(Score: 2) by inertnet on Tuesday August 29 2023, @11:08AM (1 child)
I wonder what the added value is of intense monitoring. They won't prevent these mutations from occurring. I understand the importance in the early days of the pandemic, and maybe now there might be some benefit in early adaptation of vaccines. But it really feels like there's an urge to do something useful, just for the heck of being useful.
(Score: 5, Insightful) by khallow on Tuesday August 29 2023, @03:40PM
Reduces the harm of real problems: saves lives and reduces disruption to society. Testing sewage for covid is pretty low cost - compared to testing thousands or millions of people for covid.
It helps answer the question of whether we're in the early days of a new pandemic. Surely there's some value in that?
(Score: 5, Interesting) by krishnoid on Tuesday August 29 2023, @11:56PM
i wonder if a few other regular people in your area wrote in and shared the CDC pages on it [cdc.gov], maybe the local government would stop considering it as something out of the X-files or a particularly nerdy Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles episode. This is why I mention wastewater surveillance whenever I get a chance in conversation. That way gets the concept around, and "surveillance" gives it a spy kind of feel [youtu.be].
Also, considering that you need to know:
, you have to have a passing familiarity with virology, modern chemical detection capabilities/cost/scale, how organics break down in liquids at the molecular level, municipal wastewater treatment, data visualization and distribution, and epidemiology. That's a lot, and I can imagine most (receptive) non-STEM types would benefit from some extra background or confirmation from someone they trust to distinguish it from science fiction.
(Score: 0, Troll) by DadaDoofy on Tuesday August 29 2023, @12:07PM (7 children)
Yep. If the can't incarcerate the candidate who is leading their guy in the polls in time, they need a plan b.
(Score: 5, Interesting) by epitaxial on Tuesday August 29 2023, @02:39PM (3 children)
Why is the party of law and order rallying behind a person charged with 91 counts of state and federal crimes?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 29 2023, @03:22PM
Maybe they think that's better than criminals who are above the law.
(Score: 0, Troll) by DadaDoofy on Tuesday August 29 2023, @04:54PM
Because they aren't drinking the kool-aid the other party's been drinking. It may have gone over your head, but each new pathetic act of desperation against the man makes it all the more obvious to people why he needs to win.
(Score: 2) by cmdrklarg on Tuesday August 29 2023, @06:25PM
Rules for thee; not for me.
The world is full of kings and queens who blind your eyes and steal your dreams.
(Score: 5, Interesting) by cmdrklarg on Tuesday August 29 2023, @06:24PM (2 children)
I gotta ask: why are you so invested in the guy?
He's lost 3 elections in a row (2018, 2020, 2022) and his odds of winning in 2024 are not good.
Losing 2018 was nothing special, as it is pretty normal for the sitting POTUS' party to lose ground.
2020 we all saw. Yeah, he had the 2nd highest number of votes cast for him ever. Too bad the other guy got the 1st highest. He lost the EC vote quite handily, and part of why he's been indicted has to do with trying to overturn that.
2022 was supposed to be a red wave riding on his coattails! In reality they barely took the House, and lost ground in the Senate!
2024 is looking like more of the same. Most Reps like him, granted. Dems hate the guy, no surprise. Independents? A majority do not like him. That's bad news for him and those like him, as they need the independent vote to win. Doubling down on the tRumpism is not going to change that.
Polls show him as winning? Polls don't mean dick this early, and besides that they also claimed the 'red wave' of 2022.
Republicans want to win? Start by dumping the loser tRump and those like him.
The world is full of kings and queens who blind your eyes and steal your dreams.
(Score: 1, Troll) by DadaDoofy on Tuesday August 29 2023, @10:06PM (1 child)
Me? Not so much, but there are close to a hundred million others now willing to pull that lever. BTW, he didn't run in 2022. What happened in that congressional election was largely a result of the Bush appointee Roberts handing the left a bone by deciding to hear the case on the nullification of Roe vs. Wade (Ironically, a decision made by a court comprised entirely of old white men). The good news is, the decision about the legality of abortion has moved back to the states. Don't like your state prohibiting you from killing your unborn baby, move to one that not only embraces it, but pays for it, and stop your whining.
(Score: 2) by cmdrklarg on Wednesday August 30 2023, @08:41PM
True, but there were many candidates riding his coat-tails, and the vast majority of them lost.
You cannot be serious. Nullifying Roe v. Wade was a deliberate ploy by the 6-3 Catholic majority SCOTUS to galvanize the "left"?
Or... maybe, *just maybe*, it was a deliberate ploy to exercise minority rule to start outlawing abortion in a country where 60+% are in favor of it being legal? Small wonder that it caused so much trouble for conservatives.
Yes! Good news! I'm sure it will stay a "state's rights" issue when they get around to trying to make it illegal at the federal level.
That's right! We must wait until they are in school before killing them, preferably with AR-15s.
When put to a vote by the people they are overwhelmingly in favor of abortion being legal. Three states that asked to have it as a constitutional right passed; three (red) states that asked to ban it failed. What's more likely to happen is that if you don't like your state banning abortion: vote those who consider themselves your rulers out of office in favor of politicians who will do as their constituents want.
The world is full of kings and queens who blind your eyes and steal your dreams.
(Score: -1, Offtopic) by digitalaudiorock on Tuesday August 29 2023, @01:01PM (20 children)
Good thing this place it a "tech" site with "scientists" right? It really needs to be said. So far the replies to this one illustrate why I haven't even been following anything here related to SN changes to governance or bylaws etc. For me, this place can't die and go to the Internet dustbin fast enough. Just way too many shitheads dragging it down for it to ever recover.
(Score: 5, Insightful) by inertnet on Tuesday August 29 2023, @02:16PM (15 children)
Any COVID related topic will inevitably turn into a heated exchange of opposing viewpoints on any forum, which is an interesting topic in itself. Apart from politics, I can't think of any other topics that can turn into battles with minimal real information, where viewpoints won't change a Planck length anyway.
I try to stay out of these (COVID, politics), this time I posted a reply because I was wondering what the risk in the topic subject is. Without expecting a sensible reply really.
There's enough interesting stuff passing by here, if you don't agree you can submit your own. I suspect that only a small minority of visitors are real scientists, but still a larger proportion than I come across in real life. I appreciate their input, but I guess they're avoiding COVID and politics topics too.
(Score: 4, Insightful) by digitalaudiorock on Tuesday August 29 2023, @02:25PM (8 children)
But I mean FFS. I've been modded as "Off Topic" when DadaDoofy's comment "Yep. If the can't incarcerate the candidate who is leading their guy in the polls in time, they need a plan b" gets modded insightful? That's not just political, that's fucking brian dead. Fuck this place and most everyone here.
(Score: 5, Insightful) by inertnet on Tuesday August 29 2023, @03:14PM (6 children)
Being modded down should not upset you, especially with controversial topics like this one. I have been modded down after giving factual information and that's very annoying, but don't let your day get spoiled by it. Understandable as it is, posting inflammable rants are only going to make it worse.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 29 2023, @03:35PM
> Being modded down should not upset you ...
Just gave you a +1. My personal position: this is an internet forum and imo it's pointless to fret over what other people think about, and how they mod, your posts. At best I think of the mod system as an indicator of who is reading my comments--it reflects more on the person doing the moderation than it does on the person posting.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by digitalaudiorock on Tuesday August 29 2023, @04:21PM (4 children)
Well, I'd argue that 1) the posts I was referring to are the inflammatory rants, and 2) nothing I post is going to make this topic or this site much "worse" than it already is. The right wing (and arguably anti-science) trend here has gone past the tipping point for me.
(Score: 0, Flamebait) by DadaDoofy on Tuesday August 29 2023, @05:10PM
What "tipping point"? You are still here posting.
(Score: 5, Insightful) by acid andy on Tuesday August 29 2023, @07:36PM (2 children)
Us science-loving lefties are still here. We're just too burned out and disillusioned with what's happening to the world (and trying to deal with some of the consequences) to muster energy to post very often. Don't go.
If a cat has kittens, does a rat have rittens, a bat bittens and a mat mittens?
(Score: 4, Insightful) by digitalaudiorock on Tuesday August 29 2023, @08:36PM (1 child)
Thanks...appreciate that. For me the right wing crap here gets tougher take all the time, because the situation on the right in the U.S. keeps getting worse and worse. At this point we don't even have two parties. We have one party with the Democrats and one authoritarian movement in the GOP, and anyone who doesn't see that is blind and deaf. Serious fucking shit that's very scary even for old school conservatives who've somehow avoided the kool-aide.
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday August 30 2023, @01:19AM
You can't fix stupid.
Best use your resources doing something productive.
Study history, see how we got to where we are, then choose wisely.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday August 29 2023, @04:27PM
(Score: 5, Insightful) by DannyB on Tuesday August 29 2023, @02:43PM (5 children)
It is astonishing that in the 21st century, a virus causing a pandemic becomes a hot political issue. Misinformation and conspiracy abounds and people are gullible enough to believe it. Fifty years ago it would have been a simple medical problem that we would have worked on and solved without any politics.
The flames of conspiracy and misinformation are fanned by "news" channels that are actually FCC licensed as "entertainment".
That this can happen in the 21st century indicates that we have failed as a once great nation.
When trying to solve a problem don't ask who suffers from the problem, ask who profits from the problem.
(Score: 2) by inertnet on Tuesday August 29 2023, @03:15PM
I can assure you that this is not limited to the USA.
(Score: 2, Informative) by khallow on Tuesday August 29 2023, @04:32PM (3 children)
Nobody in the US has the job of licensing "news" channels as "news". For example, here [snopes.com].
(Score: 3, Insightful) by DannyB on Tuesday August 29 2023, @10:03PM (2 children)
Ok, forget about the licensing comment. It does not change that the channels I refer to fan the flames of conspiracy theories and misinformation. They feed on outrage based on lies.
When trying to solve a problem don't ask who suffers from the problem, ask who profits from the problem.
(Score: 2, Insightful) by khallow on Wednesday August 30 2023, @02:02AM (1 child)
True, but consider the situation. People want to feel outraged. It's an addictive feeling. Outrage dealers fill a need. I wouldn't consider them any different than I would any drug dealer or pimp. We have simple ways to keep them in check, like defamation lawsuits.
(Score: 4, Informative) by DannyB on Wednesday August 30 2023, @01:46PM
So far those defamation lawsuits seem to be working. The first one for $1.6 billion was settled for a measly $787.5 million. The next one coming up is for $2.5 billion, and they don't seem to be in a mood to settle. There are plenty of other smaller ones against individuals involved in massive defamation simply to create outrage based on lies with not a shred of evidence produced in over 60 lawsuits.
When trying to solve a problem don't ask who suffers from the problem, ask who profits from the problem.
(Score: 2, Insightful) by khallow on Tuesday August 29 2023, @04:02PM (2 children)
(Score: 1, Flamebait) by DadaDoofy on Tuesday August 29 2023, @05:20PM (1 child)
There are huge number of sites that censor the things this person doesn't want to hear as "misinformation" and "hate speech". It should be obvious that's where the person should be, but I find people like this can't rest until all sites censor what they don't want to hear.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday August 29 2023, @07:54PM
(Score: 2) by higuita on Wednesday August 30 2023, @12:02AM
Blame the US people, that only see black and white (or red and blue, if you want), where everything (even science!) is politic and you can only have 2 sides, nothing else... they are young and still didn't learn that there are many side and it is good to have them and force them to agree and work together
(Score: 2) by Immerman on Tuesday August 29 2023, @02:32PM (3 children)
So, how exactly does this seemingly no-worse-and-possibly-mild new variant, which seems to not be especially infectious, which apparently doesn't yet alarm experts, demonstrate just how risky slacking off on COVID monitoring is?
I mean, I'm on board with continuing to monitor COVID carefully until we understand it better - it's genetically unstable, does weird shit we don't understand and can't cure in a sizable fraction of the infected (long covid), and is dangerous enough as-is that it wouldn't take much of an increase in mortality and communicability to become really devastating.
But that article does absolutely NOTHING to actually explain the risk cited by the headline.
(Score: 5, Touché) by Tokolosh on Tuesday August 29 2023, @02:48PM
From the article: "So far, the overall risk posed by the new subvariant is unclear."
So there you have it.
(Score: 5, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 29 2023, @05:34PM
For a variant to show up in greater numbers in a bunch of countries at once is deeply concerning because while there's generally some up and down variation in the proportion of variants. One consistent pattern has emerged: when a new variant becomes the majority variant, a big fucking wave follows soon after. Tracking the variants is deeply important and useful to public health authorities.
So, if you've got a more infectious variant that's not confined to a particular area, but has had a spreader/superspreader event touching on world travellers, you're going to have another big fucking wave worldwide instead of in your state/province/voivod/canton/whatever.
(Score: 3, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 29 2023, @05:41PM
No version of covid is mild.
(Score: 5, Funny) by epitaxial on Tuesday August 29 2023, @02:43PM (1 child)
I'm subscribing to Joe Rogan again and ordering a jumbo tube of horse paste. Also told my doctor I won't be needing his services and exclusively using bitchute.com
(Score: 1, Touché) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday August 30 2023, @01:39AM
Actually, ivermectin is a good thing to have around, especially if you have animals. It's a good antiparasitic, topically applied to keep parasites out of open wounds. That, and BNP cream.
You don't want those flies and larvae festering in your cat!
(Score: 0, Flamebait) by Coligny on Wednesday August 30 2023, @02:12AM
“Immunization from vaccination”
Wait… didn’t even Pfizer stated that their vaccine was useless at transmission and contamination from the virus but only usefull at avoiding “worst case” i sick people… because somehow at somepoint in this sh1tshow it was decided that you can now prove a negative because…
Because…
Because f-uck you… that’s why !!!
If I wanted to be moderated by mor0nic groupthinking retards I would still be on Digg and Reddshit.